Changing the world's top ten technologies in the next decade: 25 super solar farms to meet
David Evans, Cisco’s chief future visionary, said that 3D printers, sensor networks, virtual people, and other technologies under development will dramatically change our world in the next 10 years. With an exponential increase in computing power, the rate of change triggered will also increase exponentially. Technological changes in the next 10 years will bring changes far beyond the past 10 years.
Although disruptive technologies are unpredictable, we can look into the future by learning R&D work done by R&D labs around the world. As the chief future visionary and chief technologist of the Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG), Evans's job is to imagine and predict the future. At Cisco's annual IT and communications conference, Cisco Live, Evans expressed his belief that the top 10 technology trends will change the world within 10 years. Here are the top ten technologies that Evans lists to change the world:
Virtual people, including robots and online avatars, will become part of the workforce. Evans said: "Animated characters already have voice recognition capabilities, but also can convert text into speech, to identify people who have encountered before." In 2020, robots will surpass humans physically. IBM's "Blue Brain" program will last for 10 years and will use hardware and software to create a human brain. Evans said: "They think that within 10 years, there will be consciousness in this brain."
In 2025, the number of robots in developed countries will exceed the number of people; in 2032, robots will exceed human intelligence in intelligence; by 2035, robots will completely replace human labor. In the future, we will see more complex and advanced incarnations. Evans pointed out that IBM's Watson is an example of a virtual person. Watson answers questions and gives an accurate answer.
In the future, patients can use virtual machines instead of network family doctors, and hospitals can also use virtual machines to improve care and treatment. Augmented reality and gesture-based processing technologies will enter classrooms, medical institutions and communication facilities to improve teaching and service quality. He said: "The machine's 'eyes' allow users to use their smartphones to shoot Sudoku puzzles and then complete the puzzles immediately."
The data produced in 2008 was about 5 megabytes, equivalent to 1 billion DVDs. Three years later, we created 1.2 zettabytes of data, which is equivalent to 1024 exabytes. Evans said: "This is equivalent to 100 years of tweets for everyone on the planet, or watching a one-hour television show for 125 million years." Our interest in high-definition video content has contributed to a large extent This growth. According to Cisco's forecast, 91% of Internet data in 2015 will be video content. Cisco’s R&D and marketing focuses on the so-called “zettaflood”, which requires a significant increase in the data transmission capabilities of the network and cannot be dropped when we watch the video.
3. Cloud wisdom
Many zettaflood data will be stored in the cloud. Of course, the vast majority of data can be accessed through the cloud, not just through private networks. According to Cisco's forecast, by 2020, one-third of the data will be accessed through the cloud. Global cloud service revenues increase by 20% annually, and IT companies spend more than $1 trillion in innovation and cloud processing in 2014. This money is enough to create another Google. Evans said: "The cloud technology is now very advanced enough to help us communicate through real-time language translation. Through the visit of powerful supercomputers - such as 'Alpha of Wolfram' to improve our knowledge, through new ways We have improved our health with computing platforms such as IBM's 'Watson'. We have far more types of communication than ever before."
Cloud computing gives computing power to end devices to improve our communication capabilities through real-time translation. At present, Android phones already have voice search capabilities, pass user questions to Google Cloud for processing, and then pass search results to users. Evans said: "We will see more intelligent ways of communicating. Information based on context and location will appear in large numbers."
With always-on devices, the Internet can analyze existing information to a greater extent. The information will be passed to a private sensor to understand one's sleep and transfer the call to voicemail. If you know that the user is in a car that is 60 miles per hour (about 96 kilometers per hour), the sensor will realize that it is not the time to answer the video call. Of course, until that day, we may have opened a Google unmanned car and chat in the car will become free.
4. Next Generation Internet
Evans used his home as an example of speed improvements. Since 1990, Internet performance has increased by 170,000 times. In 1990, there was only one telnet connection. Evans now has 38 always-on connections and more than 50M of bandwidth, enough to simultaneously telepresence, watch movies online and play games. He believes that the home network speed will increase 3 million times in the next 10 years. Most people in the industry will focus on 40G and 100G.
At present, a new generation of Internet is forming. Joseph said that the creation of an interplanetary network requires a new protocol that enables ultra-long-haul data transmission without being affected by waiting time. Evans pointed out that multi-terabit networks using lasers are being developed. Early work proposed the concept of quantum network technology based on quantum physics. This technique involves quantum entanglement. No matter how far apart, two particles will entangle. If one is powered, the other will be. Quantum networks are expected to become a reality in decades.
5. The world is getting smaller and smaller
With the aid of always-on connectivity, social networks have the ability to change our culture, just like the Egyptian revolution that gave birth to the Arab Spring. The influence of social networking sites will spread rapidly across cultures. A smaller world means faster propagation. Evans said: "In the recent earthquake in Japan, the tweets of Japanese residents sent their followers before the U.S. Geological Survey formally issued tsunami warnings to Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California." Communication and consumption will be upgraded from "in time" to "real time." This shift will have a more rapid impact on culture.
6. Solar power generation
As the population continues to grow, Evans estimates that every year in the next 20 years there will be a major city with a population of 1 million. More effective urban power supply will become an inevitable choice, especially solar power generation. Evans said: "Solar power alone can meet our energy needs. In order to solve the current global energy demand, we need to build 25 super solar farms, each covering an area of 36 square miles (about 93 square kilometers). The area of forest that is felled each year is 170,000 square kilometers." He pointed out that this super solar farm can be completed in as little as three years.
Advances in related technologies will increase the efficiency of solar power generation while making it more economical. In June, researchers at the University of Oregon demonstrated a novel, economically affordable, and less influential way to "print" solar panels using inkjet printers.
More things will go from "entity" to "virtual." Nowadays, more and more people download e-books and videos instead of buying books and DVDs. The 3D printing technology allows us to immediately manufacture anything from food to bicycle, strikingly similar to the copy machine in Star Trek. Evans said: "3D printing or additive manufacturing is a process of bringing together materials based on 3D model data, usually a layer of printing."
Thanks to a layer of printing, everything from toys to cars to living structures can be printed, which is no different from what is traditionally made. Some people pointed out that 3D printing may face legal challenges. Evans said: "In the not too distant future, we can print human organs." At the Technical Entertainment Design Conference held in Long Beach, California in March, Anthony Attala of the Wake Forest University Institute of Regenerative Medicine The Ph.D. prints a proof-of-concept kidney model. This is not a living organization, but it is still a remarkable breakthrough.
8. All things network
We have exceeded one threshold and the number of things connected to the Internet exceeds the global population. Next-generation Internet Protocol IPv6 supports almost unlimited connectivity. According to the forecast of Cisco IBSG, the number of things connected to the Internet will reach 50 billion by 2020, which is equivalent to more than 6 Internet devices per person on Earth. Many users in developed countries have 3 or more Internet-connected devices such as PCs, smart phones, tablets, and Internet TV. Evans said that the sensor network will be popular in the future, using low-power sensors to collect, transmit, analyze and distribute huge amounts of data.
Based on standards such as Zigbee, 6LoWPAN and Z-wave, this sensor can provide users with services in a predictable and surprising manner. Zigbee was implanted with smart home appliances and smart instruments. Winton Cerf applied 6LoWPAN to his cellar climate monitoring system. Z-Wave is the foundation of Verizon's smart home automation service.
Now, more creative applications are springing up. The Dutch startup Sparked implanted sensors into the ears of cattle to monitor the health and whereabouts of cattle. In addition, the company will implant sensors into shoes, asthma inhalers and other drug delivery devices and medical exploration devices. Sweden even has a tree with a large number of sensors, expressing its emotions and ideas through the "translation engine" developed by Ericsson.
9. More advanced medical technologies and equipment
Evans said: "Pacemakers are nothing new any longer." In the next 10 years, medical technology will become more advanced as computing power increases, and medical equipment will also be miniaturized. Devices such as nanobots and the ability to develop alternative organs using the patient's own tissues will become more common. He said: "The dream of ultimate integration is a brain-machine interface that ultimately allows patients with spinal cord injuries to live like normal people." Now that we have developed ideas for controlling video games and wheelchairs. The software developed by Intel can scan the brain, understand the ideas of others, and predict their next actions.
10. Human or Borg?
Stephen Hawking said that mankind is entering an evolutionary stage of self-design. As medical technology reaches a new height, humanity will have a range of tools to improve its capabilities. Evans cited several examples below:
In July 2009, Spanish researchers discovered the material behind "staying alive."
In October 2009, Italian and Swedish scientists developed the world’s first artificial hand with a sense of emotion.
In March 2010, retinal transplant surgery helped blind people restore their eyesight.
In June 2011, the Texas Heart Institute developed a "rotating" heart that does not have a pulse, does not block, and does not fail.
The early application of these technologies can help repair sick tissue or brain damage and ultimately help humans realize their dream of "self-design." In the future, humans can use a large number of technologies to repair, improve, or enhance the body and turn themselves into Borgians. Future visionary Ray Coolwell is an advocate of this idea. As related technologies develop to a certain degree, humans and machines will merge to become a new species. Cruzville described this idea as a "singularity point." According to his predictions, this dream will become a reality by 2054. Evans is not convinced of Singularity and is skeptical of Cruzville's prediction in 2054. At Singular University in Mountain View, Calif., Evans searched for plausible data. He thinks we are heading towards this path. (Sina Tech Beijing time July 22 news Xiaowen)
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